Methodology

The NALEO Educational Fund derived our general election projections of Latino voter turnout in 2020 by using a statistical modeling approach that takes into account trends in Latino voter turnout in the last several relevant Presidential election cycles. We determined Latino voter turnout in those cycles from Current Population Survey data presented in the U.S. Census Bureau reports, Voting and Registration in the Elections of November 2000-2016. Because the projection is based on past voting trends, it does not take into account the potential increase or decrease in Latino turnout that could result from the growth in Latino naturalizations, the saliency of various issues in the public dialogue during the 2020 Presidential contests, more robust voter engagement efforts, restrictive voter registration and voting laws, or other factors.